Wolves return
“In 1995, 14 wolves from Alberta were released in Yellowstone, supplemented by another 17 Canadian wolves in 1996,” Boyce wrote.
For the first 10 years after wolf reintroduction, Boyce said he was “pretty smug” about how well his model followed what happened in the park. But when he dug into the model a third time, he found that some of the parameters were wrong.
“Ninety-five percent of the prey was elk in the first decade,” he said. “So that was wrong.”
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Wolves, he had predicted, were supposed to dine on other species like deer, moose and the occasional bison as well, but elk proved to be by far the most popular item on the big canines’ menu.
“He makes some really good points about how hard it is to predict ecological conditions,” said Merav Ben-David, a professor and head of the University of Wyoming’s Zoology and Physiology department. “I was impressed he was willing to admit his mistakes.
“We have to be careful when we model because ecological ecosystems are complicated, and we can’t predict how things will change,” she said.