Academic debate

Since the reintroduction of wolves, elk populations — which some biologists will argue were unnaturally high in the largest Northern Range herd that migrates into Montana in the winter — have fallen from about 19,000 in 1995 to about 5,000 the last three years. Likewise, wolf numbers have dropped from a high of about 170 in 2003 to roughly 100 now, mirroring a decline in the availability of their main prey — elk.

A debate between scientists continues as to whether or how much the reduction in elk has helped revive tree species like willows and aspen, whose tender shoots are often winter elk food.

Winnie said researchers Scott Creel, of MSU, and Dave Christianson, of the University of Arizona, “pointed out that a decline in elk numbers was sufficient to explain an increase in willow growth noted” by scientist Hawthorne Beyer, of the University of Queensland, Australia, in a study published in 2007. “Beyer was claiming that changes in elk distribution on the landscape due to the risk of wolf predation was leading to willow being released. Boyce argues that (Creel and Christianson) are wrong because elk numbers didn’t decline during the course of Beyer’s study, citing Beyer (2007) to support this argument. Beyer’s figure 2 clearly shows a nearly 50 percent decline in the elk population during the course of his study, making (Creel and Christianson’s) criticism reasonable.”
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Winnie also noted that the 1988 fires and regrowth of aspens in Yellowstone, along with the expansion of grizzly bear ranges to outside the park have been other notable changes over the past 40 years.

“So overall, I think Boyce has the bigger picture right, but I think he’s wrong about some of the details,” Winnie said.